Nevada policymakers won't be unrolling the red carpet for Internet gambling anytime soon, it seems, after a recent study revealed Nevadans just weren't that interested in the activity.
In fact, of the 1,000 Nevadans polled by telephone, only 3.7 percent report having gambled online . . . in the last five years.
Among those that haven't gambled online, 65 percent said they were "not interested," while 88 percent said they were unlikely to begin, even if the state decided to regulate.
Bad news for Internet gambling proponents, or is there a silver lining?
Not exactly; but Bo Bernhard, co-author of the study and sociologist at the University of Nevada Las Vegas, explained that these findings represent "a snapshot of a very interesting moment in history."
Bernhard told IGN that he and his team were in the field roughly a year ago, shortly after Sen. Bill Frist introduced the Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act and the high-profile arrests of David Carruthers and Peter Dicks.
"These events had a chilling effect, both on people's tendency to play online and on people's tendencies, perhaps, to report playing online," he said.
The study, Internet Gambling in Nevada, was undertaken by the International Gaming Institute at UNLV in 2006 at the request of Nevada Gaming Control Board Chairman Dennis Neilander.
In an interview with IGN, Neilander said that Nevada looked into regulating Internet gambling in 2001 -- a plan it ultimately scrapped after the federal government said No. But as the decade wore on, the Control Board became interested in the possibility of intrastate Internet gambling.
"In the timeframe between 2001 and today, the Gaming Control Board has been approached by a number of different parties who have said, Hey, you know, you guys ought to take a look at intrastate Internet gambling, particularly as poker became very popular," he said.
In Neilander's opinion, a lot of these "parties" had come with anecdotal evidence suggesting Nevadans possessed a strong interest in I-gaming. Some even believed Nevada was the third-largest state in terms of residents who participated in Internet gaming.
In the absence of any sound evidence, Neilander said he felt it was important "to go ahead and get some bona fide research done that would assist the Control Board in determining whether regulating intrastate Internet gaming was something we should continue to pursue."
While crafting an intrastate regulatory framework does not appear to be a matter of imminent concern to the Nevada legislature, especially considering the UNLV study's results, should these results sound the death knell for intrastate gambling in the Silver State?
Bernhard thinks not, considering (as the study says in the last sentence of its conclusion) "the highly dynamic and rapidly evolving nature of online wagering today."
On the more speculative end, when asked whether the study's results could be different in a year's time, Bernhard said: "I would say no, except -- and unless -- there are historical developments. Experimental design experts call this the 'history effect.' History happens as you're out in the research field.
"I think very frequently people think that research is sterile and happens in a vacuum. Obviously, history happens."
Bernhard added that if the study was conducted again now, researchers would probably find "fairly similar" results, given little has changed with regard to U.S. public policy.
"But gosh, the potential administration could have a dramatic impact if in fact they were to move in a different direction, or if this WTO matter were to have a different sort of impact, and that were very public," he said. "Because public perception is so vital in interacting with any product, I could envision one of those developments really almost mandating a new study to examine new, dynamic impacts."
In terms of adoption, Internet gambling as a measurable behavior looks to be in its embryonic stages in Nevada. Bernhard said respondents who gambled online "looked like early adopters of technology," in that they were younger, better educated, male and wealthier than average.
According to Bernhard, an early adopter is a person who researchers in burgeoning technologies consider as one who plays a key role in moving these technologies to the point of critical mass.
"Internet gambling might be like a lot of new technologies: something that is adopted by a relatively small but passionate bunch at the outset then spreads into the mainstream," Bernhard said. "Time will tell."
As for the study, Neilander said it will not be used as a determinant of any particular regulatory or legislative initiative going forward, but will remain "another tool for policymakers to use."
Click here to view a copy of the UNLV study, Internet Gambling in Nevada.